The cut arrives either way.
This week the market split into two groups with almost nothing between them, and the line was the original list price. What that did to Capitol Hill, Petworth and Dupont Circle, and what I would do about it.
The week in one scene
Of the 28 homes that closed in ten days or fewer this week, 23 closed at or above ask. Six homes needed 90 days or longer, and every one of them sold below 93% of its original price, a combined $878,000 off the original numbers. 4519 15th St NW took 193 days and closed at 86.1%. 3639 New Hampshire Ave NW took 151 days and closed at 86.0%. The market is not hot or cold. It is binary, and the line between the two groups is the original list price. Inventory stopped building at the same time: active listings fell from 830 to 802, down 3.4%, after two straight weeks of growth near 20%.
What moved, and why
Capitol Hill: Up 2.3% to $1.10M on 306 sales, the deepest sample in the city
Six homes closed, and the median time to close was 5.5 days. 158 12th St SE sold in 4 days at $1,500,000, 107.2% of its $1,399,000 list. 117 11th St SE closed at $2,112,500 in 8 days. The exception was 1233 E St SE, 41 days and 96.3%. Active listings fell from 84 to 76, the largest drop in the city. Supply thinned in the one neighborhood that already had the shortest clock, which is why the median moved up in a week when the city stopped adding inventory.
Dupont Circle: Down 1.9% to $1.76M, while price per foot rose
The median dropped $67,800 in a week while the median price per square foot rose from $805 to $820. Both can be true when the mix tilts toward smaller houses that cost more per foot. 1734 Swann St NW is the example. 1,276 square feet, listed at $1,375,000. Under contract in 5 days and settled at $1,415,734, which is 103.0% of ask and $1,110 a foot. Active listings fell from 33 to 29. On 57 sales the move is worth taking seriously. The headline price slipped. The price per foot did not.
Kingman Park: Up 6.4% to $625K on 60 sales, and a rotation, not a trend
Four closings entered the window at $860,000, $817,000, $784,000 and $775,000, each above the old median of $587,500. The annual figure swung from -6.0% to +0.8% on that alone. The same swing happened on August 23 and reversed within four weeks. Three of this week's four sales closed at or above ask, in 2, 7 and 5 days; 215 15th St NE took 71 days and closed at 92.3%. The selection script offered Bloomingdale, which did not move. A 6.4% move on 60 sales is the more credible story, so Kingman Park stays.
Petworth: Flat at $800K on 130 sales, and the clock shortened from 30 to 25 days
Five homes closed and they split cleanly. 4122 7th St NW sold in 7 days at 104.2% of ask. 4504 New Hampshire Ave NW in 7 days at 100.0%. 1239 Shepherd St NW in 6 days at 101.9%. 834 Varnum St NW #2 in 1 day at 100.0%. Then 3639 New Hampshire Ave NW took 151 days, listed at $1,250,000, and closed at $1,075,000, 86.0% of the original. A 130-sale median absorbs that outlier without moving. The ask is what separates the four that closed in a week from the one that needed five months.
Adams Morgan: Down 20.7% year over year, and nothing traded
The median is the same $1,018,500 as last week. The annual figure moved from -16.5% to -20.7% anyway, because the year-ago base rolled forward from $1,220,000 to $1,285,000 while the current median held still. That is a measurement effect, not a market event. Ten trailing sales is a thin base and active listings sit at 2. A neighborhood this small produces a data point every few weeks. A quiet week is not a stable market, and a wider percentage is not a worse one.
Every neighborhood, as of October 5, 2026
| Neighborhood | Median Price | MoM | DOM | $/sqft | L2S | YoY | Sales, 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalorama Heights | $2.60M | +1.2% | 32 | $721 | 97.0% | -21.6% | 25 |
| Georgetown | $1.90M | — | 12 | $999 | 98.1% | +0.4% | 104 |
| Dupont Circle | $1.76M | -3.7% | 16 | $820 | 98.1% | -2.0% | 57 |
| Woodley Park | $1.73M | — | 7 | $836 | 100.3% | -8.2% | 15 |
| Lanier Heights | $1.70M | +6.1% | 9 | $785 | 100.0% | +13.1% | 4 |
| Kalorama Triangle | $1.63M | — | 65 | $689 | 94.0% | -8.1% | 8 |
| Burleith-Hillandale | $1.62M | -0.5% | 8 | $930 | 97.4% | -9.4% | 40 |
| Crestwood | $1.57M | +22.8% | 0 | $670 | 100.0% | +12.5% | 3 |
| North Cleveland Park | $1.55M | — | 9 | $815 | 99.4% | +8.8% | 13 |
| Mount Pleasant | $1.47M | +1.4% | 6 | $704 | 100.0% | -2.8% | 58 |
| Logan Circle | $1.45M | +0.6% | 21 | $776 | 98.3% | -17.4% | 46 |
| Cathedral Heights | $1.38M | — | 32 | $706 | 96.0% | -7.8% | 14 |
| Foxhall Village | $1.33M | — | 6 | $807 | 100.2% | -1.5% | 16 |
| Glover Park | $1.32M | — | 10 | $857 | 99.7% | +1.9% | 32 |
| Forest Hills | $1.30M | — | 9 | $900 | 100.0% | +0.6% | 1 |
| Cleveland Park | $1.29M | +1.0% | 16 | $747 | 96.4% | -9.2% | 16 |
| Chevy Chase | $1.23M | -3.0% | 8 | $699 | 97.5% | +2.2% | 17 |
| Friendship Heights | $1.18M | -4.1% | 7 | $716 | 100.0% | +18.0% | 13 |
| Navy Yard | $1.16M | — | 19 | $617 | 98.1% | +2.0% | 12 |
| Shaw | $1.13M | -1.7% | 20 | $657 | 99.2% | +3.2% | 57 |
| Foggy Bottom | $1.12M | +21.3% | 39 | $859 | 95.6% | +7.6% | 4 |
| American University Park | $1.11M | +4.0% | 6 | $673 | 97.9% | +2.8% | 4 |
| West End | $1.10M | — | 11 | $795 | 95.7% | -43.6% | 3 |
| Capitol Hill | $1.10M | +2.8% | 8 | $719 | 98.9% | -2.7% | 298 |
| Sixteenth Street Heights | $1.06M | — | 19 | $560 | 97.8% | +5.4% | 35 |
| Adams Morgan | $1.02M | — | 27 | $694 | 95.5% | -20.7% | 10 |
| U Street | $1.00M | +0.3% | 23 | $736 | 97.6% | +0.3% | 35 |
| Bloomingdale | $938K | — | 24 | $539 | 98.5% | -16.5% | 46 |
| Mount Vernon Square | $928K | +8.5% | 31 | $565 | 96.0% | -28.7% | 6 |
| LeDroit Park | $897K | — | 37 | $541 | 96.0% | -3.9% | 26 |
| Hill East | $875K | -2.3% | 9 | $664 | 99.7% | +1.7% | 42 |
| Columbia Heights | $875K | +0.3% | 13 | $528 | 97.4% | -3.8% | 95 |
| Near Northeast / NoMa / H Street | $854K | +0.7% | 17 | $620 | 97.4% | -5.1% | 82 |
| Southwest Waterfront | $805K | -3.2% | 26 | $488 | 100.0% | -17.0% | 25 |
| Petworth | $800K | +0.1% | 25 | $519 | 96.9% | -4.8% | 129 |
| Truxton Circle | $780K | — | 41 | $469 | 94.4% | +6.4% | 27 |
| Park View | $725K | +3.6% | 27 | $502 | 96.9% | -6.8% | 46 |
| Brightwood Park | $725K | — | 33 | $518 | 97.6% | +6.6% | 71 |
| Eckington | $720K | +4.2% | 32 | $501 | 96.9% | +17.1% | 64 |
| Brightwood | $650K | +1.2% | 31 | $453 | 95.7% | +1.6% | 66 |
| Wakefield | $639K | — | 8 | $435 | 100.0% | +4.8% | 11 |
| Brookland | $635K | +1.8% | 23 | $490 | 98.9% | +5.8% | 103 |
| Kingman Park | $625K | +5.7% | 20 | $547 | 99.3% | +0.8% | 58 |
| Trinidad | $575K | +1.5% | 43 | $420 | 95.9% | -8.0% | 65 |
Row houses only, fee simple and condo, closed sales from BrightMLS. Median price, DOM, $/sqft and L2S are medians of the 12 months ending October 5, 2026. Sales is the number of closings in those 12 months. MoM compares the median to four weeks earlier; YoY to the prior 12 months. Greyed rows have fewer than 10 sales: a handful of houses, not a market.
Three sales that explain the week
1007 O St NW, Shaw: $2,205,000, settled September 30. Four bedrooms, 3,030 square feet above grade, $728 a foot. Listed at $2,200,000 and sold in 3 days at 100.2% of ask, the highest price of the week and 11.1% above Shaw's median price per foot. The ask was set where buyers were already paying, and the clock shows it.
1913 13th St NW, U Street: $1,950,000, settled October 1. Seven bedrooms, 2,576 square feet above grade, $757 a foot. Listed at $2,250,000 and sold after 92 days at 86.7% of the original number, a $300,000 cut, the largest of the week. The final price sat 2.9% above U Street's median per foot. The house cleared at a normal price per foot. It started $300,000 above what that supports.
5226 7th St NW, Brightwood Park: $440,000, settled October 2. Three bedrooms, 1,336 square feet above grade, $329 a foot. Listed at $565,000 and sold after 104 days at 77.9% of the original, the lowest ratio of the week and 36% below the neighborhood's median per foot. The sale price says what the house was worth to a buyer on the day. The 104 days say how long the original ask took to learn it.
What I would do with this
Capitol Hill lost 8 listings, closed six homes in a median of 5.5 days, and its median rose 2.3%. Petworth sold four homes in a week or less and one in 151 days. Dupont Circle sold a house in 5 days at 103% of ask while its headline median fell $67,800. All three trace to one variable: whether the list price matched what buyers were paying that week. Inventory stopped growing, but 802 homes is still a crowded market, and a crowded market punishes the wrong number faster than a thin one. I would price to this week's closings, not last season's. The cut arrives either way. The only question is whether it arrives on day one or day 150.
If your block is in that table, I will send you every sale on it for the last 24 months. No charge. Start with the address.