Line up the last four Julys and the pattern is hard to miss. July 2023: $1,075,000 median, 12-day DOM. July 2024: $964,250 and 15 days. July 2025: $989,000 and 21 days. July 2026: $959,000 and 14 days. The market has recovered nearly all of its 2023 speed. It has recovered none of its 2023 price. That combination is not weak demand. A 14-day median and 98.7% of ask means buyers are moving with conviction when a home is priced to its comps. What buyers are refusing to do is chase. Price per square foot backs this up: $660 in July against $646 a year ago, a 2.2% gain while the headline median fell 3.0%. The dollars per foot are firming even as the mix of what sells keeps the median flat. Accurately priced homes are trading better than the headline suggests. For sellers, the lesson is mechanical. Pricing accuracy converts directly into speed: July sellers who met the market kept 98.7 cents on the dollar and were under contract in two weeks. Aspiration converts into sitting, and sitting converts into the 92-cent outcomes showing up in the correction neighborhoods. For buyers, speed is not froth. Nothing in a flat median says you are overpaying for urgency. The fastest July in three years happened without a single point of price growth. Speed is what discipline looks like when the price is right. |